ياشاسين آذربايجان - Long live Azerbaijan

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Mr Annan, who is mediating between the two sides, said last week that they were “very close” to a solution. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urged both leaders to strike a deal after holding separate meetings with them on Monday.

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Further violence could erupt in Kenya unless a solution to the country’s political crisis is found urgently, an international think tank has warned.
Armed groups on both the opposition and government sides are mobilising for fresh attacks, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG).

Its report calls for legal, electoral and constitutional reforms and for aid to be conditional on a peaceful result.

Ex-UN chief Kofi Annan has been leading mediation talks in Nairobi.

The ICG report comes as Kenya’s opposition warned it would relaunch mass protests in a week’s time if the talks do not break the political deadlock.

Using aid

Ethnic and political violence broke out after President Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner of December’s presidential election.

At least 1,000 people have been killed across the country and hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced.

The ICG report warned “serious obstacles” to peace remained and made 12 recommendations.

These included for sanctions be targeted at those responsible for inter-ethnic violence.

And the group said international aid should to be made dependent on a satisfactory outcome to negotiations.

“The current uneasy calm in Kenya should not be misunderstood as a return to normalcy,” said the report.

“The protracted political crisis has deep roots and could easily lead to renewed extreme violence. More is at stake than the collapse of Kenya itself.”

Evisceration

The report noted that Kenya was the platform for relief operations in Somalia and Sudan and a haven for refugees from throughout the region.

The think tank also said Kenya was a vital regional trade hub and a key anchor for prospects of long-term stabilisation in Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi.

It concluded: “The quicker a comprehensive solution to the crisis in Kenya is found, the better the prospects will be for the entire region.

“The alternative - a collapsed economy, the evisceration of the democratic process and ethnic and territorial conflict - would have severe consequences for the whole of east Africa, and well beyond.”

Although both sides attending mediation talks in Nairobi have agreed the idea of a grand coalition in principle, deadlock remains over how it should work in practice.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga wants powers vested in a new post of prime minister - but this needs MPs to amend the constitution and is opposed by President Kibaki.

Mr Annan, who is mediating between the two sides, said last week that they were “very close” to a solution.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urged both leaders to strike a deal after holding separate meetings with them on Monday.bbc

, Voice of a Nation

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